The political attitudes, views, and voting preferences expressed by Russian-speaking immigrants in the United States over nearly two decades are the product of both their Eurasian/post-Soviet heritage and, significantly, their experiences within America. Due consideration must be given to the current climate of political polarization and radicalization among many left-wing and certain right-wing groups, and how this environment influences their electoral behavior. In our view, four primary factors explain why Russian-speaking voters in America consistently favor Republican candidates over Democrats by a significant margin (typically 75% to 25%) in both presidential and midterm elections. These factors include: policy toward Israel, rejection of what they perceive as the neo-Marxist course of Democratic administrations, support for efforts to liberalize the tax system and labor market, and ideological alignment with the civic platform of the Republican Party.  It is further posited that the political and ideological profile of Russian-speaking voters in the United States mirrors that of Russian-speaking Jewish communities in Israel, Germany, Canada, and potentially Australia, as well as parts of the former Soviet Union. This hypothesis warrants further empirical research. 

Russian-speaking Jews constitute a significant portion of what is termed the "transnational Eurasian diaspora," with their population in the United States estimated at 750,000 to one million (though Israeli demographers consider this figure to be considerably overstated). Excluding Israel, where the Russian-speaking population is not strictly a diaspora, "Russians" in America represent the largest segment of this global group. The majority settled in the United States as a result of a wave of Jewish emigration from the USSR and its successor states spanning nearly fifty years. The phenomenon of this exodus and its broader implications hold genuine historical significance, yet remain understudied not only in the United States but worldwide. This text briefly examines one specific dimension: the political engagement of the Russian-speaking diaspora in the United States and the extent of its influence on broader American political processes.

Polarization and Radicalization

The political and cultural polarization of American society has been underway for some twenty to thirty years. While polarization has always existed, it intensified in the twenty-first century, reaching a peak at the onset of the 2016 presidential election campaign. Since the election of Donald Trump in November 2016, America has split into two comparably sized but antagonistic cultural and political camps, with virtually no remaining shared interests or basis for compromise. Economic, political, and cultural issues that might once have been debated in a civil manner have deteriorated into stark dichotomies.

A multitude of unresolved issues has accumulated. The abortion debate has been joined by women's rights and the Me Too and Women's March movements; the Black Lives Matter movement arose in response to police shootings, as did Antifa, a ostensibly anti-fascist but practically far-left movement; far-right and far-left factions have mobilized and radicalized; and in foreign policy and economics, a strict antinomy between isolationism and globalism has emerged. Furthermore, the issue of illegal immigration—and immigration in general—has become highly contentious, particularly regarding the construction of a border wall with Mexico. The constitutional division of powers and the balance among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches have reached a point of friction, while issues of religious freedom and the right to bear arms (the First and Second Amendments, respectively) have triggered direct confrontation between "liberals" and "conservatives." Crucially, this ideological divide no longer aligns solely with party lines. It has increasingly become defined by generation (young liberals versus older conservatives), gender and identity (women and various sexual minority groups versus white heterosexual men), education (college-educated liberals versus non-college-educated conservatives), urbanization (suburbs and major metropolitan areas versus small towns), and geography (the liberal coastal regions versus the conservative interior states).

It should be noted that while this polarization has affected attitudes toward Israel and the broader Middle East, the level of confrontation on these issues has not reached the intensity seen elsewhere. On certain matters, such as Israel's security and bilateral military and economic cooperation, the divide between Democrats and Republicans remains minimal. On other issues—such as the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, the Iran nuclear deal, or the pursuit of a "two-state solution"—disagreements have sharpened. However, in a broad strategic sense, the view of Israel as a critical U.S. ally and a democratic outpost in the region is shared by the establishments of both parties. This represents one of the rare areas where high-stakes confrontation has yet to fully manifest.

How "Russians" Vote

Amidst these pervasive societal divisions, Russian-speaking immigrants demonstrate remarkable stability in their political views and preferences. For nearly eighteen years, a substantial majority of Russian-speaking voters have consistently supported Republican candidates. In the 2000 election, however, preferences were split: approximately half of Russian-speaking U.S. citizens voted for Republican George W. Bush (who secured the presidency by a margin of about 500 votes in Florida—votes that could well have been supplied by the Russian-speaking community), while the other half supported Al Gore, Clinton's Vice President. Although Gore's personal popularity among Russian-speakers was limited, the selection of Senator Joseph Lieberman—an observant Jew, an advocate for Soviet Jewry, and a staunch supporter of Israel—as his running mate played a decisive role.

By the 2004 presidential election, the alignment of Russian-speaking voters had solidified and remained largely unchanged through 2016 and beyond. In 2004, 78% voted for Bush's second term; in 2008, 75% cast their ballots for Republican Senator John McCain in his loss to Barack Obama. In 2012, approximately 80% voted for Republican Mitt Romney. Although Romney was an unfamiliar figure to many, associated with Mormonism, he was deemed vastly preferable to Obama, who was highly unpopular within the Russian-speaking community. Romney lost the election (a result some local commentators in Brighton Beach later viewed as fitting, given Romney's subsequent criticism of President Trump from his Senate seat representing Utah).

Finally, in 2016, Russian-speaking voters overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump, with 77% to 80% voting in his favor. Initially, during the Republican primaries, Russian-speaking voters viewed his candidacy with skepticism, as several of the other nineteen contenders seemed highly qualified. Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas were particularly well-received. However, as the campaign progressed, and especially after he secured the nomination, Trump became a favored figure among Russian-speaking voters. Notably, Trump won the presidency by carrying key swing states—such as Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania—by narrow margins. Given the substantial Russian-speaking populations in these states, it is highly probable that their votes contributed significantly to his victory, and may indeed have been decisive. The first two years of the Trump presidency largely met or exceeded their expectations.

Nevertheless, it must be acknowledged that the younger generation—the so-called "1.5" and "second" generation of immigrants—did not share this enthusiasm for Trump. Votes among those aged 18 to 35 were nearly evenly split: only 45% to 50% in this demographic favored Trump, while 50% to 55% voted for Hillary Clinton. Were it not for this subgroup, Trump might have secured up to 85% of the overall Russian-speaking vote. The underlying factors here are clear, considering that 90% of Russian-speaking voters in this age bracket either attend or have graduated from college, where liberal academic environments exert a strong influence. For the conservative segment of the community, however, it is notable that Russian-speaking youth remain far more conservative than their American peers (including American Jewish students); while support for Hillary Clinton reached 80% among general American college students in New York, it stood at only 50% to 55% among young Russian-speakers.

The 2018 Midterm Elections

Elections for the U.S. Congress, in which the entire House of Representatives (435 seats) and one-third of the Senate (33 seats) are contested, occur every two years. Those held at the midpoint of a presidential term are known as midterms. They serve as a key test of the sitting president's legislative standing and act as a referendum on the administration's policy direction, while also signaling the start of the next presidential election cycle. Leading up to 2018, both chambers of Congress were controlled by Republicans, providing President Trump with significant latitude to advance his legislative agenda. This alignment enabled the passage of major corporate and individual income tax reform in late 2017. Many economists credit this legislation with driving robust economic expansion: the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%, financial markets reached record highs, and overall economic growth exceeded 3% in 2018.

Despite these strong economic indicators, political polarization intensified. Hostility toward the president from major media outlets, congressional Democrats, and the liberal establishment reached unprecedented levels. Conversely, President Trump maintained and consolidated his core support base. On the eve of the midterm elections, his approval rating stood at 42% to 45% among the general electorate, while remaining near 85% within the Republican Party.

During the first half of his term, Trump achieved notable milestones in both domestic economic policy and foreign affairs. Key achievements included the relocation of the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, the renegotiation of trade relations with Mexico and Canada, historic diplomatic engagement with North Korea, and the withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. This record suggested strong potential for Republican success in the midterms. However, the outcome was mixed: Republicans expanded their Senate majority from 51 to 53 seats—a crucial outcome for judicial confirmations and key appointments—but lost control of the House of Representatives, where Democrats gained a 17-seat majority. Consequently, the lower chamber of Congress passed to Democratic control.

In these elections, Russian-speaking voters maintained and, by our estimates, increased their support for President Trump's agenda. It is estimated that over 80% of those who voted supported Republican candidates for Congress, thereby signaling approval of the administration. While their impact on the overall House elections is difficult to quantify, their votes proved significant in close Senate and gubernatorial contests in several key states. In Florida, Republican Rick Scott defeated the incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by approximately 10,000 votes; given that Florida's 30,000 to 40,000 Russian-speaking voters cast a decisive majority of their ballots for Scott, this constituency clearly contributed to his victory. Similarly, Republican Ron DeSantis won the Florida gubernatorial race against Democrat Andrew Gillum by a margin of just 30,000 votes out of over 8 million cast, a result also heavily influenced by the Russian-speaking vote.

The majority of Russian-speaking voters are Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union. Notably, their voting patterns run entirely counter to those of American-born Jews, who have voted consistently Democratic since the New Deal era. American Jewish support for Democratic candidates reached 78% for Obama in 2008, 75% for John Kerry in 2004, 76% for Al Gore in 2000, and 65% for Obama's reelection in 2012. Over the past century, American Jewish support for Democratic presidential candidates has rarely fallen below 50%—a baseline observed in 1980 when Reagan ran against Carter. Even at the height of Reagan's popularity in 1984, approximately 60% of American Jews voted for the Democratic ticket. Thus, American-born Jews and Russian-speaking immigrants exhibit diametrically opposed voting patterns and disagree on most political matters. Additionally, while nearly 60% of American Jews have never visited Israel, approximately 60% of Russian-speaking Jewish immigrants have visited at least once.

Causes and Effects

Many within American liberal and mainstream Jewish circles question why Russian-speaking Jews—who are immigrants themselves and have occasionally relied on public assistance programs—support conservative policies and the Trump administration. We identify four primary factors underlying this support.

1. Israel. Alignment on Israel is a primary determinant of candidate support for this electorate. President Trump and congressional Republicans demonstrated greater resolve on this issue than their predecessors of either party. Moving the U.S. Embassy to Jerusalem, fostering close relations with Israel's conservative government, withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal, and questioning the viability of the traditional two-state formula have defined current U.S.-Israel relations. These actions earned the strong support of Russian-speaking voters.

2. Rejection of Socialism. Having experienced the realities of state socialism and authoritarian governance, Russian-speaking immigrants remain deeply skeptical of government expansion, regulatory intervention in business, and policies perceived as socialist. Consequently, they opposed the Obama administration's healthcare reforms and proposals to increase taxes on higher earners, viewing the Republican platform, and Trump in particular, as defenders of market-capitalist principles[1].

3. Taxation and Employment. Alongside their opposition to state-controlled economic models, Russian-speaking voters prioritize lower taxation and favorable conditions for job creation. As most immigrant households rely on wage income or small business revenues, they consistently support candidates who advocate for tax reduction and employment growth. President Trump's delivery on tax reform, robust economic growth, low unemployment, and deregulation for small businesses strongly aligned with these priorities, securing voter preference for Republican candidates in 2018.

4. Ideological Alignment. The ideological and social platform of the modern Democratic Party generates little support among Russian-speaking voters. Decisions such as removing references to God and Jerusalem from the party platform, the legalization of same-sex marriage, and a strong political focus on sexual minorities have alienated this conservative electorate. This is further compounded by concerns over illegal immigration. Trump and the Republican Party are viewed by many in this community as the ideological successors to President Ronald Reagan, whose advocacy for Soviet Jewry in the 1980s, economic policies, and defense of American standing make him an enduringly respected figure among this generation of immigrants.

The political and ideological alignment observed among Russian-speaking immigrants in the United States appears consistent with that of Russian-speaking Jewish communities in other countries of resettlement, including Israel. In Israel, the Russian-speaking electorate leans heavily toward the center-right and right-wing parties. A similar pattern is documented in Canada and Australia, and preliminary data from Germany supports this hypothesis. In contrast, political dynamics within the post-Soviet space remain distinct, as the traditional left-right political spectrum of Western democracies does not directly translate to those political environments. Nonetheless, it is clear that the Russian-speaking Jewish diaspora is overwhelmingly conservative in the Western sense of the term, a cultural and political phenomenon that warrants continued academic study.

[1] Francis X. Clines, “Mr. Trump’s Russian Base Beyond the Kremlin”, New York Times, July 24, 2017